donderdag 22 oktober 2009

IceDebt

Iceland is going to pay back its debt! Hurrah! This week the Icelandic government will be signing an agreement. The four billion euros (3,4 billion pounds) the Dutch and British governments loaned to pay back the duped savers in Icesave, will now be reimbursed from the pockets of the common Icelander. Great! Or no?

I think not. There happen to be three hundred thousand Icelanders. Who have to pay... four billion divided by three hundred thousand... that's thirteen and a half thousand per person. Or a bit more than forty thousand per family. That's quite a lot. Especially since it's not the only debt the Icelander must face.

Icelanders with high education, who do not feel like joining in the repayment schedule, have already started emigrating. Understandable. But it also means that those who cannot pay must pay even more. I wonder how much can really be paid back, without literally selling Iceland to either the Russians or powerful bank J.P. Morgan.

Sourest may be that the debt is not even the fault of the average Icelander. They never promised to repay the money now lost. Maybe some did borrow too much money for a car or house. Maybe some did try to live above their station. But what they borrowed they also have to pay back. Over and above the aforementioned forty thousand per family. And added to both is interest. Come to think of it, I don't have to think at all whether it's possible. With the current Icelandic economy it's not possible in any case.

Iceland promised to pay back in fifteen years, with interest. To start in 2016. With an interest rate of five percent they will have to muster another 50 to 100%. That's between six and eight billion euros in total, or between sixty thousand and eighty thousand per Icelandic family. That's half a house.

Actually most Icelanders are just as guilty of the Icesave losses as we are in the Netherlands, Brittain, or the rest of Europe. Namely: entirely not.

We could also share the loss. If we add the population of the Netherlands and the UK to the Icelanders, then we are with eighty million people. Four billion divided by eighty million is... fifty euros per person. Let's say one hundred fifty per family.

If we spread the cost over three years, at five percent interest, then it will cost us... less than five euros per family per month. Less than the national lottery or a mobile phone insurance. Four point six billion will be raised this way. The debt is then paid for. In three years. And we'll pay two to four billion interest less to the banks. This way they at least will not profit from the very misery they helped bring about.

If we share costs among all Europeans, the amount of money per person is ridiculously low. Then it's four billion divided by four hundred sixty million people. That's less than ten euros per person. Say thirty euros per family in total.

As compensation for our effort we can then demand that Iceland joins the European Union, and will use euros from now on. That's better for trade. And we will gain a huge nature reservation for Europe this way: Iceland itself. With huge clean energy reserves, from geothermic sources and electricity gained from waterfalls. Of which they have plenty.

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